动荡中美贸易政策下,多算胜,少算不胜

August 30, 2019

继美国总统特朗普的又一轮“推特风暴”,以回应中国早前决定的加收关税政策之后,紧张和不确定性再次充斥了中美双边市场,对两国都造成了一系列新的政治压力。在美国,甚至共和党人内部也开始担心特朗普最近的言论和关税政策,可能会破坏现有的经济增长态势,甚至可能会影响到2020年总统大选的形势。特朗普的忠实支持者之一,参议员罗恩·约翰逊(Ron Johnson)表示:“经济发展所面临的最大风险是整个贸易形势,因为其中蕴含了巨大的不确定性和不稳定性”。

 

随着美国极富争议的选举季来临,共和党的一些主要成员,以及他们各自代表的商业利益走到了十字路口。国会山报(The Hill)最近发文,称“美国经济发展受阻的最明显迹象体现在农业上。中国的每一轮关税政策回应都对美国农业产生了重大影响。2017年,中国曾经是美国农产品的第二大买家;而2018年,中国因限制贸易采购量,已经掉落至第五位。对于美国农业来讲,出口收入从196亿美元掉落至92亿美元,意味着超过100亿美元的损失”。就连特朗普本人对此也明显表现出了担忧,CNN发文中甚至表示,其为刺激股市价格回升而声称收到中方要求重启贸易对话的消息并不属实。种种混淆视听的言论冲击,加之选举年带来的压力,及中国的关税政策反击和对香港问题更加强硬的立场态度,美国所面临的危机仿佛一颗“定时炸弹”,持续威胁着其经济和政治的稳定发展。

 

面对越发“剑拔弩张”的中美关系,从事中美跨境交易和国际贸易的个人和公司,再不能想当然的等待形势变化,应该主动应对市场挑战做出适时的调整。

 

  • 现阶段的形势每时每刻都在改变,保持对新闻、时事政策的敏感性,了解其背后涉及的文化缘由十分必要;

  • 公司有必要制定紧急应对机制,如风险管理计划等,及长期的战略指导方针,包括及时更新相关的合规流程;

  • 个人和商业关系的建立应基于沟通,与客户、投资者和其他利益相关者进行适当的文化沟通交流是不可或缺的一环。

 

JLG伯盛仲合始终不局限于为客户提供法律服务,我们专业的律师团队秉承着为客户预判形势、提早准备的宗旨,对国际政策、时事动向保持着高度的敏锐。

 

欢迎点击此处与博格大律师预约咨询。由博格大律师带领的国际业务部,可协助跨境企业积极做出战略调整,应对现阶段不稳定的中美贸易环境;并帮助企业管控合规风险,为企业的蓬勃发展奠定扎实基础。

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