While awaiting the eve of destruction, remembering the importance of crisis management couldn't hurt, right? Especially for cross-border business operations, being able to postulate outcomes, understand cultural and political differences, and do advance planning are neither a luxury nor even possible without reliable information obtained from multiple sources – Exactly what you'll find in the remainder of this email. Same goes for creating company-wide rapid response strategies: an excellent reason to join JLG’s Post-Election Webinar, our effort to inject some sanity and practical reasoning into what will almost certainly be an even crazier world after November 3 (details below).
As always, feel free to forward this newsletter to anyone you think would be interested, or use this link for additional background.
JLG Cross-Border & Regulatory Briefing - PLUS Services You Can Access Now:
Long before he personally tested positive for COVID-19, President Trump was calling the virus “the China Plague” and declaring “It’s China’s fault!” (most loudly, in front of one of the largest presidential debate audiences in history). Predictably heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing, however, are only one of many reasons JLG’s Global Enforcement group has been thinking overtime about ways we can better prepare ourselves and our clients to minimize political risk and its mix of legal and economic consequences.
This newsletter is all about the added value of informational awareness. The links and observations here, however, are only scratching the surface. If you'd like to experience how JLG's intelligence services might positively impact your company, or even a particular transaction, please click here and we’ll send you a free example version of “JLG Insider” – our customized Presidential-style brief providing precision research and resources, delivered to fit your schedule in a format chosen by you and your team.
Meanwhile, the topics, commentary and articles below reflect what I view as essential for anyone engaged in cross-border commerce. And by essential, I do mean “bet the company” essential. Unavoidable truth: You need the whole picture. Far too many business leaders and attorneys focus myopically on their sectors. I'd never deny the importance of expertise. But today, it isn't sufficient. Our integrated post 24/7 universe requires broad-scope attention. So, let’s get started:“
China hawks encounter new opponent: U.S. Companies,” The Washington Post, 10/12/2020. This is truly a “must read” – a fascinating look at how some recent American anti-China policies are rapidly alienating large sectors of America’s business community and perhaps opening unexpected opportunities - at least for those fast enough to catch them.
Would a Biden Presidency actually change US-China relations? Some thoughts from former US Ambassador to China, Max Baucus, who agrees with JLG’s vision of “a complimentary economic relationship,” and argues Biden would help; And this alternative perspective from Foreign Policy Contributing Author, Edward Alden, explaining why a Biden “China Doctrine” might decrease anti-China tweets yet remain substantively similar to the status-quo.
Also on our radar: The US continues restricting technology transfers to China while the PRC begins responding in kind (in particular, new additions to the “Huawei List” are outpacing even the rancor stirred up by fights about WeChat and TikTok).
“Taiwan's president calls for less tension with China in annual address,” The Guardian 10/10/2020.
Where Will You Be in Three Weeks?
No matter who wins (or even if there isn’t a winner), the only thing we know for sure is November 3 means yet another 2020 reality-shift. Until then, here are my top picks for up-to-the-minute election data, expert analysis and – maybe most importantly – some much-needed humor:
State of the race: With a President who won’t even agree to a peaceful transition of power, all predictions deserve healthy skepticism. Nevertheless, this week’s Real Clear Politics National Average has had the race hovering around Biden +10, although many other major news outlets project outcomes more dramatically favoring Biden (Check this out from Fox News, for example!) What does it all mean? Mostly nothing - although the consistent trendlines and surprising numbers from traditionally red states like Arizona and Texas are worth watching – as is Trump’s huge lead in South Carolina and virtual tie in Ohio.
What’s at stake? According to one of George W. Bush’s former senior advisers, “America survived one Trump term. It wouldn’t survive a second.” True or not, it’s worth taking a moment to let that one settle in.
SCOTUS: Further evidence of America’s extreme polarization (as if you needed any) can be found in what was arguably the week's #1 news story: The Supreme Court Confirmation hearings. My expectation is that Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, (R-KY), will prevail and that Judge Barrett will be confirmed along party lines despite extreme proximity to the election and raging ideological warfare in the Senate Judiciary Committee - a decision likely to impact America’s legal and societal identity for decades.
Basic rule on VP debates: “Do no harm.” Senator Harris appears to have met (and probably exceeded) that standard – even without assistance from the most famous fly on Earth.
Wondering what happens if President Trump loses but won’t concede? Short answer: Probably something bad. This link offers several more “scholarly” explanations from The Atlantic Magazine’s outstanding political team.
On a lighter note: Saturday Night Live’s version of this weeks bizarre “presidential debate” - that is, the first debate in history without any debating. And The Daily Show’s Trevor Noah putting some of the past week’s insanity in context...
FINALLY we are excited to announce JLG’s Post-Election Webinar where I will be moderating a group of high-powered panelists from the worlds of politics, law, and global business. Life may or may not become radically different overnight. No matter what we wake up to, however, intelligent and informed conversation are the right place to begin piecing it all together. Please click here to lock in your preferred pre-registration (FREE for newsletter recipients) and submit questions – Timing, featured speakers, and other details by early next week.
Stay safe, engaged, and hopeful.
James Berger
Global Enforcement Partner
